走向共和

A股成交额下半年新低！三大指数午后一度翻红 调整已近尾声？_我的网站

一 |     　　8月25日，市场午后震荡回升，沪指小幅飘红。    

    South Korean President Lee Jae Myung meets with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, at Cheong Wa Dae in Seoul, South Korea, Aug. 20, 2026. Photo: XinhuaFresh progress in China-South Korean ties was on display in another high-level exchange held Thursday between the two sides, following mutual visits by the two heads of state within a span of just over two months previously.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who kicked off his visit to South Korea on Wednesday, held talks with President Lee Jae-myung on Thursday, according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry.
The visit by Wang Yi is his first in five years since he last came to Seoul for bilateral talks with his South Korean counterpart in September 2021, according to South Korean media outlet Yonhap News Agency. 
During the meeting, the South Korean president said that South Korea and China should become mutually dependent and mutually beneficial partners with complementary strengths, adding that the two countries need each other in areas such as economy, trade and security, according to the Xinhua News Agency.
Wang Yi, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, said the comprehensive restoration of China-South Korea relations and positive progress made since the beginning of this year have demonstrated that a rational, pragmatic and positive policy toward China fully serves South Korea's interests and is in keeping with the trend of the times. 
During the visit, Wang also met with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun and Wi Sung-lac, South Korea's top presidential national security advisor.
Chinese analysts regard the latest senior-level engagements as "building on the past and paving the way for the future." Coming at a critical juncture amid shifting regional dynamics, it serves as a tangible follow-up to the two heads of state's efforts to restore bilateral ties and reflects the growing maturity of relations, they said.
Opportunity for greater progress
During the meeting, Lee told Wang Yi that he was glad to see China-South Korea relations improving and developing rapidly, with strong growth momentum in economic and trade cooperation. While highlighting that people-to-people exchanges between the two countries are expected to exceed 10 million this year, Lee said that South Korean public perceptions of China are improving and there are growing expectations for strengthening comprehensive cooperation with China, per Xinhua. 
Lee added that he looks forward to visiting China's Shenzhen City in November for the 2026 APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting, calling it an important opportunity to work with China to advance the South Korea-China strategic cooperative partnership to a new level.
In his turn, the Chinese top diplomat told President Lee that he hopes South Korea will firmly pursue a friendly policy toward China and take the 35th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries next year as an opportunity to make greater progress in the China-South Korea strategic cooperative partnership.
Wang also noted that China is ready to share development opportunities with all countries, especially its neighbors. Amid growing global economic fragmentation and rising trade protectionism, Wang pointed out that China and South Korea should set an example by concluding the second phase of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations at an early date to promote regional economic integration and universally beneficial and inclusive economic globalization.
Since the two countries established diplomatic relations in 1992, their bilateral trade volume has increased more than 60 times. China has remained the South Korea's largest trading partner for 21 consecutive years, according to the Xinhua.
According to a Wednesday report by South Korean newspaper The Korea Herald, Seoul has also described Wang Yi's trip as an opportunity to build on the recent improvement in bilateral relations and prepare for further high-level exchanges.
Wang Junsheng, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' National Institute of International Strategy, told the Global Times that this visit is anchored in key consensus forged during the reciprocal state visits by the two countries' heads of state. Wang Yi's trip can be seen as translating leaders' consensus into concrete action, and deepen exchanges and cooperation at all levels, he noted.
He also viewed the visit as encompassing coordination with Seoul on future preparations for November's APEC meeting, as Lee is expected to attend. 
After previous setbacks, China-South Korea relations have recovered across political, economic, diplomatic and security spheres following the leaders' meetings, Yang Xiyu, a senior research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, told the Global Times on Thursday.
"The highlight of Wang Yi's visit this time could be summarized as steady progress in the maturity of China-South Korea relations, laying firmer ground for expanded cooperation and difference management ahead," Yang added.
Hand in hand 

On the international and regional front, Lee said that amid the current international situation, stronger strategic cooperation between South Korea and China serves the fundamental interests of both countries and is important for regional peace and stability, per Xinhua. 
Wang Yi told Lee that as an important force for maintaining world peace, China consistently advocates the political settlement of international and regional conflicts through dialogue, adding that China is also a major stabilizing force, providing valuable certainty for the world.
During the Thursday meeting with Wi Sung-lac, South Korea's top presidential national security advisor, Wang Yi also expressed hope that South Korea will pursue genuine strategic autonomy, refrain from bloc confrontation or taking sides, and develop its relations with China, the US and other major countries in a mutually compatible manner, per Xinhua. 
Wang Yi stressed that it is necessary to remain highly vigilant against the rhetoric and actions of Japan's right-wing forces that seek to turn back the wheel of history, and that the resurgence of Japanese militarism must never be allowed.
The Chinese top diplomat called on all parties to do more to facilitate the resumption of dialogue and restoration of mutual trust, expressing hopes that the Korean Peninsula will move toward peaceful coexistence between South Korea and the DPRK, ultimately achieving lasting peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, Xinhua reported. 
Yang told the Global Times that China is entering a new stage of development, while South Korea in effect stands at a crossroads amid shifts on regional security. For both countries, deepening cooperation is therefore of great significance, and the two sides will need to demonstrate greater political sincerity to expand cooperation and manage differences.
As long as the two sides uphold the vision of a shared future and maintain their independence, China-South Korean relations at this historic juncture can embark on a more solid, fruitful development path that benefits both nations, Yang continued.
He added that stable China-South Korea relations can reduce the risk of confrontation among Northeast Asian countries, build a solid regional cooperation framework, as well as serve as a model in the region.
Looking at the broader international landscape, conflicts persist in the Middle East and elsewhere, while protectionism and unilateralism are on the rise, disrupting and even severing global supply chains. Against this backdrop, China-South Korea cooperation is vital not only to maintaining stable regional supply chains but also to supporting stability at the global level, Wang Junsheng said. 
Progress in China-South Korea cooperation will generate multiplier effects benefiting both countries and the wider region, while injecting positive momentum into the global economy amid rising protectionism, Yang echoed.
On the first day of his trip on Wednesday, Wang Yi met with Cho Hyun, who said in an X post on Thursday that they walked together along the Dasan Seongguwak-gil trail in Namsan and continued their conversation from yesterday.
"Despite the lingering late-summer heat, I hope walking along the trail — where the historical fortress wall, Namsan's lush forest, and Seoul's cityscape blend seamlessly —offered Minister Wang, an avid hiker, a memorable experience. For me, it was indeed a meaningful time to deepen our friendship too," he wrote. 
Embracing China means embracing the future, and going hand in hand with China means going hand in hand with opportunities, Wang Yi said during the meeting with Lee. 
。截至收盘，沪指涨0.19%，深成指跌0.35%，创业板指跌1.00%。
　　板块来看，创新药、CRO概念回暖，农业板块全天强势，液冷服务器概念大幅反弹，零售、旅游等消费股强势。下跌方面，贵金属、锂矿等资源股大幅回调。　　全市场超4200股上涨。沪深两市成交额1.83万亿元，较上一个交易日缩量1756亿。　　截至收盘，A股成交额为18443亿元，继上周五的18922亿元后，再创下半年新低。　　“地量”之下，想看到市场走出大阳线，是比较难的。　　一是，最能带动指数上涨的科技股，也最需要流动性。　　在8月上旬的反弹中，全A量能维持在2.5万亿元附近，比当下多出不少。这缺失的几千亿，恰好是“科技龙头”“科技中军”最需要的。　　数据显示，8月以来，每天成交额超百亿元的股票，数量有明显下降。

二 | 　　上周五以来，已连续3天不足10只。　　二是，少了增量资金参与，场内资金也只能来回“倒腾”，市场缺乏向上的合力。　　“进二退一”，大多数人并不反感，因为趋势是向上的；而缩量时的反弹，有时是“进一退一”（震荡），甚至“进一退二”（下行）。　　那么，站在今天这样“地量+个股普涨+指数偏弱”的节点，有哪些积极信号值得关注呢？　　我们认为，首先是科技股盘中出现了止跌迹象。　　9:47，双创指数均在创出日内低点后反弹，后续交易时间里也未见新低。

三 | 　　午后开盘，三大指数短暂集体翻红，主要贡献方正是“易中天”、寒武纪、中芯国际、工业富联等权重股。并且在这段交易时间里，全市场整体比上午略有放量。　　对创业板指而言，年线是去年5月份以来持续站上的支撑位，在（7月底8月初）上一波调整中短暂跌破后收回。

四 | 　　这一次，年线和前低，仍是两道值得关注的“防线”。　　对科创50而言，顺序则恰好反过来——需关注前低和年线，能否激起放量修复。　　第二个积极信号在于，经过整个7月和8月前半周的演绎，市场“风格再平衡”有了明显进展。

五 | 　　直白地说，非科技股与科技股的“超跌反弹”已先后完成，二者接近或已经站在同一起跑线上——目前“高估vs低估”不再是最主要的资金轮动标准，而需要更多参考基本面、情绪面、资金面（容量）等指标。　　以今天为例，截至收盘，除了贵金属、锂矿等资源股领跌外，最能代表“防守端”的银行板块也震荡下行，因此市场其他方向，如领涨的农业、医药等，都可归结到“进攻端”。这恰好与周一的盘面反过来。　　由此来看，当下市场各方的情绪，是“观望多于恐慌”的；　　或者说，情绪先于指数企稳。短线而言，在真正的“放量修复”出现之前，仍适合先以震荡筑底结构看待，于轮动中把握机会。　　恰好，北京时间本周四凌晨（当地时间8月26日盘后），英伟达将公布2027财年第二季度业绩，或许又是一次全球科技股变盘的节点。

六 | 　　据报道，公司此前给出的营收指引为910亿美元、上下浮动2%，非GAAP毛利率指引为75%。而目前华尔街对本季度业绩预期较高。　　花旗预计，英伟达第二季度营收930亿美元，高于当时华尔街约920亿美元的一致预期；第三季度营收预计达到1051亿美元，同样高于市场预期的1037亿美元。花旗同时将英伟达2027财年AI GPU销售额预测上调3%至2900亿美元，同比增长82%。　　瑞银集团（UBS）给出了更为乐观的预测——本季度营收可能达到940亿至950亿美元，并预计第三季度指引达到1070亿至1080亿美元，实际第三季度营收甚至可能超过1100亿美元。　　另有激进的海外分析师称，投资者现在对待英伟达股票的态度，就好像该公司在人工智能领域“输了”一样，这种看法完全错误。他在周一给客户的一份报告中写道：“是时候闭上眼睛，重仓买入英伟达的股票了。”（文章来源：每日经济新闻）。

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Published on:12:25:08